Casey Quinn, Colin Young, Jonathan Thomas, and Mark Trusheim
To estimate, at the indication level, durable gene and cellular therapy new product launches in the United States through 2030, and the number of treated patients.
A statistical analysis of clinical trials pipeline data and disease incidence and prevalence was conducted to estimate the impact of new cell and gene therapies. We used Citeline’s database to estimate the rates and timing of new product launches, on the basis of the phase of development, duration in phase, and probability of progression. Disease incidence and prevalence data were combined with estimates of market adoption to project the size of reimbursed patient populations.
We project that about 350 000 patients will have been treated with 30 to 60 products by 2030. About half the launches are expected to be in B-cell (CD-19) lymphomas and leukemias.
Cell and gene therapies promise durable clinical benefit from a single treatment course. High upfront reimbursement for these products means that the total costs could exceed what the healthcare system can manage. This creates a need for precision financing solutions and new reimbursement models that can ensure appropriate patient access to needed treatments, increase affordability for payers, and sustain private investment in innovation.
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